(Feel free to update this bug's summary to be more specific.)
Component Readiness has found a potential regression in the following test:

install should succeed: overall

Extreme regression detected.
Fishers Exact probability of a regression: 100.00%.
Test pass rate dropped from 100.00% to 63.41%.

Sample (being evaluated) Release: 4.22
Start Time: 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z
End Time: 2026-01-08T00:00:00Z
Success Rate: 63.41%
Successes: 26
Failures: 15
Flakes: 0
Base (historical) Release: 4.20
Start Time: 2025-09-21T00:00:00Z
End Time: 2025-10-21T00:00:00Z
Success Rate: 100.00%
Successes: 176
Failures: 0
Flakes: 0

View the test details report for additional context.

Filed by: jialiu@redhat.com

Since Dec 31, 2025, all the periodic-ci-openshift-release-master-nightly-4.22-e2e-metal-ipi-serial-ovn-ipv6-techpreview jobs failed with the pattern:

level=info msg=  baremetalhost: ostest-master-0: provisioning
level=info msg=  baremetalhost: ostest-master-1: provisioned
level=info msg=  baremetalhost: ostest-master-0: provisioned
level=info msg=  baremetalhost: ostest-master-2: provisioned
level=info msg=  Baremetal control plane finished provisioning.
level=error msg=Bootstrap failed to complete: timed out waiting for the condition
level=error msg=Failed to wait for bootstrapping to complete. This error usually happens when there is a problem with control plane hosts that prevents the control plane operators from creating the control plane.

E.g:

https://prow.ci.openshift.org/view/gs/test-platform-results/logs/periodic-ci-openshift-release-master-nightly-4.22-e2e-metal-ipi-serial-ovn-ipv6-techpreview-2of2/2009113405876604928

https://prow.ci.openshift.org/view/gs/test-platform-results/logs/periodic-ci-openshift-release-master-nightly-4.22-e2e-metal-ipi-serial-ovn-ipv6-techpreview-1of2/2009113403322273792